Alberta ended the 2024-25 fiscal year with a surprising $8.3 billion surplus, largely driven by higher-than-expected oil royalties and increased tax revenue from population growth. Finance Minister Nate Horner said that just over $5 billion of the surplus is available cash, which will be divided between savings, debt repayment, and the Heritage Fund. A major contributor to the surplus was $22 billion in non-renewable resource revenue, including $17 billion from bitumen royalties. Alberta also received a $713 million payout from a national tobacco settlement. Despite the strong final results for 2024-25, the Province is still forecasting a $5.2 billion deficit for 2025-26, citing volatile oil prices, tax cuts, and global uncertainties like US tariffs. Horner warned that trade tensions with US President Trump, particularly over Canada’s digital services tax, could worsen Alberta’s financial outlook. Improved oil prices could help reduce the deficit in 2025-26, but Horner emphasized the need for conservative oil forecasts to stabilize long-term budgeting.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi won a byelection in Edmonton-Strathcona, securing his seat in the Legislature with 82% of the vote. His party also held onto Edmonton-Ellerslie, where Gurtej Brar won with 51%, though the NDP's lead over the UCP was reduced to about 13%, compared with 25% in the 2023 general election. In Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, UCP candidate Tara Sawyer won with 61% of the vote, defeating Beverley Toews of the NDP, who came second. The Alberta Republican Party came third. Nenshi used his victory speech to suggest there is only a limited appetite for separatism and reaffirmed the NDP’s commitment to public health care, education, and affordability. Sawyer said the separatist showing reflects rural frustration with Ottawa, but emphasized unity and the UCP’s ongoing efforts to advance Alberta's interests.
Despite the election results, Premier Danielle Smith says separatist sentiment in Alberta is at an all-time high, citing the nearly 18% support for the separatist candidate in the aforementioned byelection as evidence of Albertans' growing frustration with Ottawa. Speaking in Calgary, Smith blamed federal policies - such as emissions caps and energy regulations - for stifling Alberta’s economy and fuelling discontent. She argued that, like in the 1980s, separatist momentum could fade if Ottawa repeals harmful legislation. Smith has called on Prime Minister Carney’s government to address the federal laws that harm investment in Alberta. In response, Minister Chrystia Freeland expressed optimism that Canada is entering a new phase of cooperation, pointing to legislation aimed at accelerating project approvals. Smith welcomed this as a hopeful sign but emphasized the need for more action.
Speaking of more action, Premier Smith has named 15 members to the Alberta Next Panel, a new initiative aimed at pushing back against federal overreach. The panel includes MLAs, economists, energy executives, and legal experts, and will gather public input through town halls and surveys. Smith says the goal is to develop policy ideas and possibly citizen-led referendum questions for 2026. A referendum on Alberta separating from Canada could also be held at the same time, but only if enough signatures are collected on a Citizen Initiative Petition - the government will not call one themselves. The Alberta Next Panel will build on the work done by the 2019 “Fair Deal Panel”, launched under Jason Kenney. At the Alberta Institute, we played a leading role during the Fair Deal Panel, helping thousands of Albertans engage with issues like equalization, an Alberta Pension Plan, and provincial policing. Now, with the launch of the new Alberta Next Panel, we’re stepping up again to ensure Albertans are informed, organized, and heard. Stay tuned for more information about how to get involved!
As Alberta’s population approaches five million, a new electoral boundaries commission is reviewing how to redraw ridings for the next provincial election. The commission, which holds reviews every 8-10 years, has finished public hearings across the province and will add two new ridings, increasing the number of seats in Alberta's Legislature from 87 to 89. A key issue is whether to create more “rurban” ridings that blend rural and urban areas, a move that has drawn both support and criticism. Opponents argue these mixed districts dilute distinct local interests, while supporters say they could foster more balanced representation. This review marks the first time the commission is not required to align riding borders with municipal boundaries, potentially leading to significant shifts in representation. Nine ridings, mostly in Calgary and Edmonton, are currently over the population threshold, signalling likely urban seat increases. The commission’s interim report is due in October, with a final version expected by March 2026.
An Alberta judge has granted a temporary injunction against a provincial law that would ban gender-affirming care for youth under 16, citing potential “irreparable harm” to transgender youth. Justice Allison Kuntz ruled that the law, which was not yet fully in effect, raises serious constitutional questions and discriminates against gender-diverse youth. The case was brought forward by LGBTQ+ advocacy groups and five transgender youth. The Alberta government says the law is meant to protect children from making irreversible decisions at a young age. The government plans to defend the law in court and is considering its next steps. Meanwhile, other parts of Alberta’s transgender legislation - including sports restrictions - remain unchallenged for now.
